Healthy growth in U.S. home prices in April will likely give way to a downturn in home values over the next year, according to analysis by property data firm CoreLogic.

Nationwide, home prices rose 5.4% in April compared to a year ago, steady growth in the face of sweeping shelter-in-place orders enacted to stem the spread of the coronavirus, CoreLogic reported on Tuesday. But strong sales leading into the pandemic could take a turn over the next year as the economic fallout deals a blow to local cities and people’s personal finances.

More:?U.K. House Prices Record Steepest Monthly Decline Since 2009 Recession

By next year, the data firm expects home values to decline on an annual basis for the first time since the depths of the last housing crash, nine years ago, CoreLogic said in its latest report.

Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic, said unemployment will play a major role in driving the direction of home values, which the firm forecasts will be down in 41 states a year from now. The report didn’t break out the luxury segment.

Extremely low inventory in the wake of the pandemic will keep competition high among home buyers and could keep home prices rising in the very short-term.

“The very low inventory of homes for sale, coupled with homebuyers’ spur of record-low mortgage rates, will likely continue to support home-price growth during the spring,” Mr. Nothaft said.

But that initial rebound is likely to fizzle out in areas where local employment and businesses struggle to recover quickly.

For instance, Sun Belt vacation hotspots, including Prescott, Arizona, and Sarasota and Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida, are among the most likely to see home price decline in 2021.

A number of overvalued metro areas could also see values fall over the next year as potential home buyers find prices largely out of reach. Such areas include the greater New York City-Westchester-Northern New Jersey corridor; greater Washington, D.C., and Phoenix.

In Las Vegas and Miami, two economies where travel and tourism took a major hit amid Covid-19, home prices are on track to fall more than 7% and 4%, respectively, according to CoreLogic. Meanwhile, a hit to the oil and energy sector may derail once-brisk home sales around Texas, where CoreLogic said, homes are overvalued in Dallas and Houston.

From Penta:?Ford Foundation Launches a New Program to Tackle Inequality

“The next 12 to 18 months are going to be very tough times for the broader economy,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic.

But as economic activity and employment rebound, “we expect housing to be a driver in a national recovery.”